Tuesday, May 22, 2007

The Obama Effect

Fascinating article about what has been called, at various times, the "Bradley effect," "Wilder effect," or the "Dinkins effect," and what could possibly be the "Obama effect." Apparently pre-election polls often overstate the strength of black candidates in the US, because "white poll respondents are reluctant to tell African-American telephone interviewers that they are not going to vote for the black candidate." The effect is also seen when polling data is collected via face-to-face interviews.

The point is made, however, that the candidate does make a difference - "Jesse Jackson was identified as a black leader, Obama is seen as a Senator from Illinois who happens to be black."

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